Sep 13 – 15, 2026
University of Muenster (Castle)
Europe/Berlin timezone

Granger-causality analysis reveals defective viral genomes with antiviral potential

Sep 14, 2026, 11:50 AM
20m
Aula (1st floor)

Aula (1st floor)

Oral presentation Antivirals and Vaccines Session 2: Vaccines

Speaker

Giulia Saresini

Description

During viral infection, replication errors can generate defective viral genomes (DVGs) that may interfere with virus replication and reduce infectious virus concentration. Identifying DVGs responsible for these effects is important because of their potential as antiviral candidates. However, experimentally screening all candidates is time- and resource-intensive, creating a need for computational prioritization. We therefore applied Granger-causality analysis to time-series data from continuous influenza A virus (IAV) infection to prioritise DVGs whose abundance predicts changes in infectious virus concentration.

We analysed next-generation sequencing counts of 1,968 IAV DVGs alongside infectious virus concentrations in infected cell cultures. For each DVG, we compared two ordinary least squares models: a restricted model using infectious virus concentration alone and a full model additionally including DVG counts. We also tested the reverse relationship, enabling classification as Granger-causing, Granger-caused, bidirectional, or unrelated.

After Benjamini-Hochberg correction, 255 DVGs showed Granger-causing or bidirectional relationships with infectious virus concentration. Previously validated defective interfering particle candidates also received plausible Granger labels. These findings suggest that Granger-based classification reflects antiviral activity and can help prioritise DVGs for experimental validation.

Registration ID INF26-104
Professional status of the speaker PhD student
Junior scientist status Yes, I am a junior scientist.

Author

Ms Mia Le

Co-authors

Giulia Saresini Mr Jens Lohmann Dr Nils Petersen Dr Sophie Duraffour Dr Jan Baumbach Dr Sara Grundel Dr Tanja Laske

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