Speaker
Description
Background
Lyme borreliosis (LB) is endemic in Bavaria and a One Health challenge at the interface of human behavior, climate and tick vectors. Given ongoing climate change and a forthcoming vaccine, we describe long-term epidemiological patterns to identify target groups and establish a baseline for vaccine impact assessment.
Methods
We analyzed Bavarian LB surveillance data from 01.03.2013-31.12.2025, calculating incidence by time, place and person. We assessed seasonality using monthly aggregates, overall incidence trend using Mann–Kendall test and age-specific trends using Poisson regression.
Results
Of 55,990 confirmed cases (median age 54), average annual incidence was 33.1/100,000 (23.2–47.6), with no monotonic long-term trend (tau=0.05, p=0.855). Seasonality was stable: 77.8% of cases occurred May–September, peaking in July. Incidence was highest in adults aged 60–69 years (54.6/100,000), followed by those aged 50–59 years (43.6) and children aged 5–9 years (40.5; p<0.001). Incidence increased in children aged 0–4 years (IRR=1.047/year; 95% CI:1.036–1.058), while slight decreases occurred in some older age groups. Females comprised 53.8% of cases, but males predominated in severe manifestations.
Conclusions
LB remains of high public health relevance in Bavaria. Our findings reveal important subgroup differences that support risk-based prevention and age-targeted vaccination strategies and warrant further study of underlying risk factors particularly in young children.
Keywords
Lyme borreliosis, Surveillance, Trend analysis, Epidemiology, Germany
| Registration ID | OHS26-201 |
|---|---|
| Professional Status of the Speaker | Senior Scientist |
| Junior Scientist Status | No, I am not a Junior Scientist. |
Author
Co-authors
External references
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